Eight more days until I can be back into the Universe of Eve Online.

And what will I find?  What will happen to the Northern Coalition?  To FCon?  to M3 Corp?

It seems somewhat hazy, to me at least, if the Northern Coalition will be unable to reform from this.  On the negative side, The NC High Command was unable to muster the necessary forces and skill to defeat the onslaught of the DRF.  CTAs that lasted hours didn’t help the morale when all they did was shoot POSes, run away from overwhelming odds, or were strategically and tactically outmanuvered.  The mighty armada of supercaps that the “A” team was supposed to have in reserve turned out to have been sold.. to the very enemies that now took away our homes.  Oddly enough, those industrial corporations and even those individual members responsible for be so amazingly stupid will probably not be brought to task for their betrayal.  Likely, if they don’t join the DRF forces outright.. we’ll probably see them back in 0.0, the lessons that might have been learned completely lost to them and their new “friends” will be unaware of their undying loyalty to isk.  Personally, I think one critical lesson can be learned from the NC high command, which surprisingly was the same problem I saw with CVA when it fell.  The NC High Command didn’t take a realistic view of the situation.  I believe the NC had the opportunity to win this war if they had made one critical play.  The moment that DRF started to draw in other Russian alliances, the NC should have purchased a Pandemic Legion contract to fight with us outright, or to at least stay out of the fight.  Pandemic Legion’s reputation is well-earned and because of the very nature of alliance can adapt quickly to changing circumstances.  Neither the NC nor the DRF really have this capability.

The NC had relied on their numbers for too long to force the tide of battle and had allowed strategic and tactical plans to fall by the wayside.  Sadly, I believe the the NC, as a whole, had simply not put forth the effort (and the blame here can be spread around quite a bit) to keep training and improving tactical and strategic combat plans.  This included training and practicing new plans, new tactics.. being prepared for losses as well as being aware of what certain fleets could and couldn’t do.  The sense from the NC was that it was “too big to fall”, it simply had too many people willing to fight.  The reality was that it had too many people who were unprepared to recover from losses, especially devistating ones.

At the alliance level, RAGE, has suffered a tremendous 75% loss in membership.  Some may point to the NC’s unwillingness to use Supercaps in the Vale battles as the cause for such a decrease.  However, I think the finger should be pointed at RAGE leadership for “suddenly” and conspiciously dropping sov in the Vale Region.  Whether such things can be justified or not, Tit for Tat responses almost always are done with little warning to the average grunt on the ground.. and if you piss off enough grunts, you are no longer a leader.. you are just a guy talking to yourself.  Cold Steel Alliance have lost a large portion of their membership along with almost all of their soverignty.

On the flipside, many other “failscade” predictions have come and gone without much traction as of yet.  Majesta Empire is faring considerably better though they have lost about 1000 members.  Considering the situation, I think that is better than expected for what typically happens in these situations.  Neither Morsus Mihi nor Mostly Harmless have lost any large number of members, though MM has lost eight systems in the last month.  Wildly Inappropriate. seems to be holding steady with its holdings in the Fade and Cloud Ring areas.

The residents of Pure Blind space, namely Get Off My Lawn, SpaceMonkey Alliance, Controlled Chaos and Fidelas Constans, along with Fatal Ascension have not yet had any sov lost and very few member if any.  Wayfarers. though much has been transferred over to Wildly Inappropriate.  This may actually turn out to be a boon to the smaller alliances located there, many of whom were once part of Providence 1.0 and long for the days of smaller gang roams.  A big reason for this possibility is the complete lack of Tech moons in Pure Blind and the rumor is that DRF’s slated goal was to take over back those moons from the NC for their own purposes.  However, considering the changes CCP is planning on making, having the Tech moons completely under their umbrella will set them up to be strong overlords whose castle will be eerily similar to the old BoB defense that took ages to defeat.

m3 Corp itself is currently suffering from Bittervet/Real Life/Summertime/CTA fatigue, and efforts are underway to re-establish our core group, but we all are adults with wives and kids which need our attention as well as just the fact that we have things to do.  Unfortunately, none of us can blame the Russians for that… though I still blame them for making their language unusually difficult to learn..

 Но я изучу это